Rising Stars
H2's Joel Keeble explains that if Full Tilt's operations are closed for good, PokerStars could soon be in an unassailable position.
On Friday 15 April, Full Tilt’s founders, along with those of PokerStars and Absolute Poker, were indicted by the US Department of Justice (DoJ) on various charges with dot.com domain names seized and bank accounts frozen. This left Tilt unable to pay US players.
On 29 June, Tilt’s Alderney gambling licences were suspended and shortly afterwards French regulator ARJEL followed suit. It is believed the firm cannot return player deposits.
Meanwhile, PokerStars is weathering the storm, repaying US players and having the backing of its regulator, the Isle of Man, which confirmed the operator has not breached licensing conditions.
For the 24 hours after Tilt’s Alderney shutdown, H2 Gambling Capital reported that only 41% of Tilt’s players had been accounted for on other sites. For the week prior to this, the site had an average of 8,879 ring game players. Of these, 97 were high value, 659 in the medium cash value range, 2,040 low and 6,074 micro.
One week on, and 69% of Tilt’s player base had been accounted for. This equates to an extra 28% of the player base migrating since the initial shutdown period. For the same period, Stars saw the largest absolute gain in average player numbers with 3,121 (13% player increase), followed by Party with 831 (20%), iPoker with 694 (18%) and 888 with 320 (17%).
For medium stake ring games Stars has seen an increase of 296 (16%) followed by IPN with 78 (26%), iPoker with 49 (15%) and Party with 25 (8%). For the high-player category, blind levels over US$15/US$30 for fixed limit and US$5/US$10 for no limit, Stars saw an increase of 24 (11%), followed by iPoker with 11 (23%) and Party with 5 (6%).
Mind the gap
With the liquidity gap increasing in favour of Stars it is difficult to see how other operators can close the divide. It is the market leader with more than 50% of the dot.com poker market. It also leads the way in France and recent intelligence suggests it has taken the number one spot in Italy for June.
In poker, liquidity drives liquidity and operators will find it difficult to close the gap without affecting stability. Stars has the liquidity advantage at highstake levels, where most revenue is generated, meaning players don’t have to = wait long for a game to begin.
More cautious players have moved to listed sites such as Party and Ongame, where they wait longer for a game but payouts are guaranteed. With the shadow hanging over Tilt, the fact still remains that many players believe its software is the best, its games the most innovative and the platform the most progressive of any poker site.
Its determination to be on the edge of emerging technologies is clear with the launch of the first Android poker app followed by an iOS (iPhone, iPad) compatible HTML5 version of the site in June.
Rumours claim investors may be willing to gamble on bailing out Tilt given the value of its operation. Should this happen you have to ask whether players would be happy to return to a site which has been indicted, actively pursued by the DoJ, unable to return player deposits and shut down by its two principal licensors, and crucially, whether or not the brand has been irrevocably damaged?
If Tilt re-launches it should not be ruled out of the market completely, though at this stage it would find it difficult to regain player trust and rebuild a platform with previous levels of liquidity.
This article first appeared in the August issue of eGaming Review. For a free trial subscription, click here.