US presidential election second-biggest betting market of the year
Only the Grand National attracted more bets this year than Donald Trump's victory over rival Hillary Clinton
Political traders endured a long night last night after US presidential favourite Hillary Clinton was beaten by rival Donald Trump in one of the biggest upsets in political betting history, and also the second biggest betting event of the year.
A record £200m was matched on Betfair’s exchange with almost half of that traded on the night with Clinton traded down from around 1.25 at the start of the evening to as low as 1.08.
Yet it was Trump, who began his presidential bid as a 150/1 no-hoper roughly 18 months ago, who claimed victory despite having drifted out to a double figure price before it crashed upon news he held a strong position in the crucial state of Florida.
Operators in general enjoyed a mixed night. While Betfair’s exchange profited, the Paddy Power Betfair fixed-odds sportsbooks paid out around £4m on the Trump victory. And that was after Paddy Power had weeks earlier paid out £800,000 on a Clinton victory in what now looks like a costly PR move.
Coral’s Simon Clare said the firm came out of the night unscathed. “The shock was as big for punters as it was for bookmakers, which is why the result was effectively a break even for Coral.
“What we made online, we lost in our shops. We took betting turnover that ran into seven figures and fixed-odds betting turnover would have certainly been north of £10 million with British bookies based on our likely share, and that’s not including exchange turnover,” he added.
Ladbrokes said the election attracted more than 50,000 bets â the highest ever for a political event, 75% of which were wagered on Trump, however, 80% of the money was for Clinton.
One punter placed a £120,000 bet on Clinton at 1/6 late last night, only to cash out in-running for a £47,000 loss and then place a new bet on Trump for £80,000 at 5/4.
“Betting on political markets continues to soar and spring surprises,” Ladbrokes’ Jessica Bridge said. “The US Election has gripped the nation and not only is it the biggest ever non-sporting event the bookmaking industry has witnessed, just the Grand National will see more bets placed on a single market this year.”
Bet365 said it took a £4m hit on the Trump victory â its worst ever performance on a non-sporting event.
“We’ve had some major surprises in 2016 with Leicester City and Brexit, but this just about âTrumps’ the lot,” bet365’s Steve Freeth said. “In-play was extremely reminiscent of Brexit with Trump reaching double figures before the Midwest States started to declare.
“The rest is history, leaving us with our worst result ever on this type of âspecials’ market.”
BetVictor too said the election was bigger than both Brexit and the 2015 General Election, and even more costly.
“The election that was over three times as popular with ourselves as Brexit which had also seen hitherto unprecedented interest and I’m afraid unprecedented losses as punters kept the faith in the Republican candidate when the evidence suggested to the contrary,” BetVictor’s Charlie McCann said.
However, one firm cheering on âThe Donald’ was Sporting Index. The spread betting firm said it netted a “six-figure profit”, primarily through its electoral seats market with punters predicting a Clinton landslide.
“While many expected Hillary to walk away with the keys to the White House, we were happy to take her on and that has paid off,” Sporting Index’s Ed Fulton said. “The further Trump wins by the better for us,” he added, with final vote numbers yet to be totted up.