Poll: Which bookie is best placed to profit from the UK General Election?
Likely snap election in June will see bookies go head-to-head for slice of political betting turnover
Political trading desks were dealt a surprise this morning when UK Prime Minister Theresa May revealed plans for a snap General Election on 8 June.
While the election is subject to a vote in Parliament on Tuesday, it is expected she will gain the two-thirds majority needed to send the nation to the polls once again and at the same time send bookmaker PR machines into overdrive.
Recent elections and referendums have provided a useful boost for bookies with the 2014 Scottish Referendum, 2015 General Election, and the 2016 EU Referendum and US Presidential Elections all breaking betting records.
Minutes after May’s announcement, bookies were tweeting and emailing their latest odds for the General Election, although with the Conservatives priced at roughly 1/12 to win, operators may have to put more weight behind alternative markets such as total seats or individual constituency betting.
But which firm is best placed to profit from the likely June event?
In recent years, Ladbrokes has been heavily pushing its political betting product, and even has a full-time head of political betting in the shape of Matthew Shaddick.
Shaddick is now a regular on political debate shows, and regularly appears on panels offering the bookies’ take on upcoming elections.
Paddy Power Betfair, through both its fixed-odds and exchange products, will also be well set – the Exchange has often been referred to as a better guide to likely election outcomes than polls, and matched more than £200m on the US election. Paddy Power also famously generated some buzz by paying out early on Hillary, only to be stung by the Trump upset.
Sporting Index is also poised to do well from the election, thanks to the unique markets it offers on total seats won or vote percentage won. Punters looking to win big might be more inclined to look at those spreadbetting options rather than the main markets.
Or can a relative dark horse benefit the most? London-based exchange Smarkets, for instance, has been focusing on political betting in recent months, increasing its range of markets and events.