Global egaming growth hit by Black Friday, says H2

Global egaming growth is set to slow to 4.4% this year, according to H2 Gambling Capital, the slowest annual growth the industry has seen since the gambling data business began tracking the sector in 1998.

H2 has, following the preliminary results season, revised its global egaming gross win forecasts for 2011 down to €23.76bn, from the €25bn and 10.2% year-on-year growth it projected at the start of this year.

The Manchester-based consultancy said the reason for the downgrade was due in part to the economic backdrop and slower-than-expected regulation, but in the main to the impact of Black Friday on the poker market and of the Japanese earthquake on the Japanese Racing Association, by far the largest interactive operator in the world.

H2 said this morning: “Black Friday (and subsequent actions) occurring in the US that have decimated the scale of the Internet poker industry in that market. At this stage we have calculated that the impact will equate to as much as €765m of lost market value this year and a further €100m loss next.” It added that it expected the JRA’s interactive business to be down approximately 13% year-on-year in 2011.

In brighter news for the sector, global egaming gross win excluding the US and Japan is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in 2011. The forecasts include the expected launch of cash poker and casino in Italy in the middle of this year, and not regulated activity in Greece, Belgium and Spain expected by H2 to commence at some point in 2012.

Recent events in Germany, where H2 recently forecast the Länder’s proposed restrictive opening would capture just 7% of total egaming activity in the market in 2012, have had little impact on H2’s forecasts as it has assumed little activity will transfer onshore under the proposed scheme.

eGaming Review’s data partner H2 Gambling Capital is the leading source of gambling data for the online industry. For further details and H2’s market-leading projections, please visit H2GC.com