Poll results: Bookies' odds inaccurate as political forecasting tools

Bookies’ odds on political markets are not accurate forecasts of the outcome and should not be treated as such by media outlets, according to respondents to this week’s eGaming Review poll.

More than 70% of voters agreed they were not precise predictive tools, despite being frequently quoted in the run up to major political events, like the EU referendum or the General Election, and promoted by some operators to be as such.

However, as last week’s Brexit vote proved, the betting markets are not necessarily more accurate than the polls, given they are designed to make money rather than be predictive.

Such uncertainty was reflected in the fact around 30% of EGR readers believed the markets still had some use in determining the outcome of a given event. Those voters likely support the ‘wisdom of the market’ theory, which says that odds on Betfair incorporate all the available knowledge, including the polls and historical context.

Arguments that political betting markets are not big enough to attract significant smart money could also be rendered moot by the volumes traded on the referendum vote. Nearly ?80m was wagered through the Betfair exchange, as well as close to ?40m through bookmaking firms.

Regardless of their predictive utility, the sheer amounts wagered on Brexit suggest that political markets are definitely fulfilling their primary purpose of filling bookies’ coffers.